Analysts predict a big decline in Tesla's deliveries in the January-March period when the electric automaker reports global numbers early this week.

Why it matters: Delivery tallies are a rough proxy for sales and demand from the dominant U.S. EV player — and until recently the global leader before China's BYD inched ahead.

The big picture: Tesla-watchers will parse how much the slowdown stems from market headwinds hitting everyone vs. problems more specific to Tesla, like an aging lineup and competitors in key markets like China.

• Adding to the intrigue is that Tesla's delivery unveils are typically terse, with more detailed market analysis arriving later when it reports earnings.
• The market has signaled concern with Tesla, with its share price down 29% this year.

What they're saying: The company's "most concerning issue ... remains China, as rising EV competition and a lingering price war has made this key market very challenging," Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives said in a note.

Zoom in: The analyst hive-mind tallied by financial data firm FactSet sees 457,000 deliveries, compared with roughly 484,500 Tesla reported in Q4.

• But multiple Tesla-watchers have cut their estimates in recent days.

The bottom line: Unless CEO Elon Musk and his team pull a rabbit from a hat, a major drop looks likely.